Wharton professors Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers have analyzed current US census data, and find that American divorce rates are falling, not rising.
Writing in today's New York Times, they decry the "Great American Divorce Myth," and conclude, "perhaps it is worth stocking up on silver anniversary cards after all."
The story of ever-increasing divorce is a powerful narrative. It is also wrong. In fact, the divorce rate has been falling continuously over the past quarter-century, and is now at its lowest level since 1970. While marriage rates are also declining, those marriages that do occur are increasingly more stable. For instance, marriages that began in the 1990s were more likely to celebrate a 10th anniversary than those that started in the 1980s, which, in turn, were also more likely to last than marriages that began back in the 1970s.
Why were so many analysts led astray by the recent data? Understanding this puzzle requires digging deeper into some rather complex statistics.
... it turns out that a majority of couples who tied the knot from 1975 to 1979 — about 53 percent — reached their silver anniversary.
The narrative of rising divorce is also completely at odds with counts of divorce certificates, which show the divorce rate as having peaked at 22.8 divorces per 1,000 married couples in 1979 and to have fallen by 2005 to 16.7.
- Garry J. Wise, Toronto
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EMPLOYMENT LAW • CIVIL LITIGATION • WILLS AND ESTATES • FAMILY LAW & DIVORCE
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